How to Find Your Campaign’s Win Number and Path to Victory

Running for office as an Independent candidate can sometimes feel like navigating uncharted territory. 

It’s crucial to have a clear strategy for reaching voters and winning your race. That’s where getting your personalized Path to Victory comes in — providing a data-driven roadmap to help you run a competitive campaign.

Keep reading to learn how you can find your win number and get the data you need to win your election.

Your Win Number and Personalized Path to Victory 

A win number is the number of votes needed to win your election. 

Calculating your win number involves a few factors:

• The number of registered voters in your district or jurisdiction

• The typical rate of voter turnout

• The number of open seats in your race

To make it easy to find your win number, GoodParty.org created the Path to Victory report — a free tool that automatically calculates the number of votes (and voter contacts) you need to win your election.

The Path to Victory report is a powerful, AI-driven tool designed to give candidates a clear understanding of what it will take to win their election. 

By analyzing your local voter file and campaign dynamics, GoodParty.org generates a customized voter contact goal based on past election data and voter turnout trends. This tool removes the guesswork, allowing you to make informed, strategic decisions about voter outreach.

With your Path to Victory, you’ll know exactly how many voter contacts you need to make to have a real shot at winning.

How to Access Your Custom Path to Victory

Getting started with the Path to Victory report is easy and free. 

Let’s explore how you can unlock your custom campaign strategy, with an example from a candidate running for local office:

Step #1: Make Your Free Account

First, sign up for a free account with GoodParty.org. Our onboarding process will ask you a few questions so we can get to know you better.

Step #2: Select Your Elected Office

As part of candidate onboarding, we’ll ask you to select where you live and which office you are running for. Choose the elected office you’re running for from the menu, and GoodParty.org’s AI-driven tools will draw from our database to tailor your Path to Victory report to your specific race.

LEARN MORE: Not sure yet which elected office you want to run for? Check out our ultimate list of elected offices to consider running for in the United States.

In the example below, we’ll show you what the Path to Victory report looks like for a candidate running for school board in a semi-rural area.

Step #3: Unlock Your Path to Victory Report

Your personalized Path to Victory report will start loading as soon as you make your account. Once it’s ready, you’ll see your Path to Victory report at the top of your candidate dashboard:

The Path to Victory report includes three essential components:

• The current phase of your political campaign

• The number of voter contacts you need to make

• The percentage of voter contacts your campaign has made so far

If election day is six months away or more, your Path to Victory report will show that your campaign is in the Awareness Phase. If it’s sooner, your report will show that you’re in one of the other two campaign phases: the Contact Phase and Vote Phase.

You can learn more about the three phases of a political campaign within your candidate dashboard:

You can also see how GoodParty.org calculated your campaign’s unique Path to Victory. Our tools take into account the total number of voters in your district and the average voter turnout in recent elections. We then help you understand how many voters to reach (your win number) and how many times you should contact each one.

In our example above, there are 941 registered voters in the district where our candidate is running for school board. Because 33% of those voters typically turn out for elections, we can expect about 311 voters to show up at the polls on election day.

When we factor in a slight safety margin, we learn our win number: 159 votes to win the election.

Based on the information we have about this school board race, GoodParty.org’s tools recommend that this candidate reaches each of those voters at least five times. That brings our target number of voter contacts to 795.

If you just made your account, your dashboard will show that you have reached 0% of voters so far. Soon, you can watch that percentage grow as you connect with voters.

Step #4: Determine Your Voter Outreach Strategy

After unlocking your Path to Victory report, you’ll also have access to GoodParty.org’s recommendations for reaching your voter contact goal. We’ll suggest how many voters you should reach by door knocking, texting, phone banking, and other methods.

In our example, GoodParty.org recommends that our school board candidate reaches voters through the following tactics:

• Knock on 239 voters’ doors

• Send 159 text messages

• Make 80 phone calls

• Order 40 yard signs

• Make 80 digital impressions through advertising

• Send direct mail to 159 voters

• Have 80 conversations with voters at events

Keep in mind that every candidate’s Path to Victory looks different, so each campaign will have different goals for each voter contact method.

Step #5: Make Progress Toward Your Goals

GoodParty.org’s candidate dashboard makes it easy to track your campaign progress. Easily input how many doors your team has knocked, how many calls you’ve made, and so on.

As you make connections with voters, the dashboard will display your progress in the Path to Victory report:

Before long, you’ll have contacted 100% of the voters you need to win your election.

LEARN MORE: Want more insights on how to win your election? Read the results of our survey of 273 winning local candidates.

Power Up Your Campaign with GoodParty.org’s Free Tools

GoodParty.org’s support for Independent candidates doesn’t stop with the Path to Victory report.

Once you have your win number and Path to Victory, GoodParty.org offers additional free tools to help you execute your campaign plan effectively:

• AI Campaign Assistant: Generate campaign messaging, speeches, and outreach materials effortlessly.

• Campaign Tracker: Log and monitor progress toward your voter contact goals.

• Volunteer Network: Connect with grassroots supporters to amplify your campaign efforts.

GoodParty.org also offers affordable access to the voter file for your area. See how you can get access to voter data for just $10 per month.

The key to winning as an Independent is having a strategic, data-driven approach — and GoodParty.org gives you the tools to make it happen. If you’re ready to take your campaign to the next level, sign up for free and discover your Path to Victory today!